Topic: Is this 1966 color combination as rate as advertised?

[Jays66gt]

"This is a VERY rare factory 4-speed with RED on RED color combination. Less than 5% of mustangs had this rare color combination."

http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1966-...item43b384ce1c

I know that the factory data is long gone.  I've searched online for registry's but I cannot find one that lists percentages of options.  I have to believe that there is one out there that someone has started that owners can log into and enter their data.  Maybe not...

[midlife]

Link is no longer active.

Which red exterior are you referring to?

[JKWilson]

Here's a good link to the OP's post: http://cgi.ebay.com/ebaymotors/1966-Ford-Mustang-A-Code-GT-4-Speed-38K-Original-Miles-Survivor-Red-Red-RARE-/290774634012?pt=US_Cars_Trucks&hash=item43b384ce1c

It's buyers hype based on some unsubstantiated figure they've more than likely read in some outdated or self proclaimed "expert's" book. This is the type of thing that Jeff and Charles (and others), are constantly trying to combat so it doesn't become firmly entrenched "fact". 

BTW, Jim Smart was trying to get an online data base started such as you referred to. It's intent was to carry on with his initial research for his In Search of Mustangs project (and subsequent books). I don't think it ever got off the ground, though I would have loved to have seen it happen!

[fast66]

Car looks t be Candyapple red - the most common color in 1966. In ISM by Smart he shows that 32 % of the CA Red cars came with red std interior, so IMHO is very nice but not uncommon...
jm2c

Claes

[Pete Bush]

Disclaimer
***If there was no bias in the information gathered by the In Search of Mustangs team, then we can use this data to give us some rudimentary probabilities. But you have to remember that this is in the form of very crude approximations. Use at your own risk. ***

There were 607,568 Mustangs produced in 1966. Of that number, about 25,517 are “believed” to have the GT Equipment Group – or about 4.2%.

Using the data in the MPG we see that of all the cars submitted with paint codes (Vin-Plus), 13.8% of those submitted were Candyapple Red. And that of all Candyapple Red cars 32% had (25) Red interiors.

The rest is pure conjecture and probability:

IF (and this is a big “if” now) 25,517 total GT’s is a valid number, and IF the ratio of Candyapple Red cars is the same for these GT’s cars as it is for all those reporting VIN-Plus in 1994, then we can ASSUME that about 3,521 of them (13.8%) were Candyapple Red GT’s. [It is quite possible however, that the ratio of Candyapple Red GT’s is higher than 13.8% as this subgroup may represent a different buying trend considering GT’s are a sportier Mustang version.]

And IF there were in fact 3,521 Candyapple Red GT’s, and IF the ratio of Candyapple Red cars with Red (25) interiors is the same for these GT’s cars as it is for all those reporting VIN-Plus in 1994, then about 1,127 cars (32%) were Candyapple Red GT’s with RED (25) interiors.
Approximately 1,127 cars out of a total production of 607,568 is approximately .186% of production. Your mileage may vary

About a year ago, Jim Smart sold the rights of In Search of Mustangs to Kevin Marti. Marti has followed through on his promise to start an online registry to continue this research. It can be found at:

http://www.insearchofmustangs.org/

[Jays66gt]

Thanks Pete.  Great information. 

If your numbers are accurate, and I'm not arguing your math, the red / red is indeed uncommon.  I can only surmise that mine with interior trim code 65, red crinkle vinyl in pony livery, is even less common.

Neat.

[Pete Bush]

Statistics and Probabilities are only tools. Just remember that there are allot of "ifs" and "assumptions" in all of that. But the numbers can be useful for some down & dirty approximations that'll give you some ideas of your question in the the big scheme of things.

Marti's business is to sell research. For 1967 and up Mustangs, he has real world production numbers to answer these types of questions. With the benefit of the In Search of Mustangs database, he could (if he chose to) answer the same types of questions as I did, on the basis of statistical probabilities. And probably charge for it, too!

[Jays66gt]

Hey, I'm all for helping Marti.  If we all get together and provide him accurate information it could help preserve the history of these fine cars!

[CharlesTurner]

I like the answers to the question!   

The sampling of cars is a large enough number to make general probabilities of production numbers, but one of those things that you have to put some ** next to and let others know it is not exact.

When we start breaking down exterior and interior color combinations, total number of cars obviously goes down, but I wouldn't consider a run of 1,000+ units to be anything to call home about.  And without exact figures from Ford, it's all speculation anyway, so why bother worrying about it.

[Pete Bush]

Thanks, Charles 
I tried to be very careful in my wording.

For some decisions we make, we need exact information. For others, "close enough" will do. In the case of the early years (64-1/2 thru 66), where we have no exact information, all we have is "close enough". We just have to remind ourselves that "close enough" isn't always "good enough"

Awhile back, I ran a similar exercise on 1966 Sprint production - purely for my own amusement as a Sprint owner. The results were quite surprising and entertaining. Would I place much stock in it? Probably not. Too many variables. It did give me a greater sense of appreciation, though.

[jwc66k]

Disclaimer
***If there was no bias in the information gathered by the In Search of Mustangs team, then we can use this data to give us some rudimentary probabilities. But you have to remember that this is in the form of very crude approximations. Use at your own risk. ***

There were 607,568 Mustangs produced in 1966. Of that number, about 25,517 are “believed” to have the GT Equipment Group – or about 4.2%.

Using the data in the MPG we see that of all the cars submitted with paint codes (Vin-Plus), 13.8% of those submitted were Candyapple Red. And that of all Candyapple Red cars 32% had (25) Red interiors.

The rest is pure conjecture and probability:

IF (and this is a big “if” now) 25,517 total GT’s is a valid number, and IF the ratio of Candyapple Red cars is the same for these GT’s cars as it is for all those reporting VIN-Plus in 1994, then we can ASSUME that about 3,521 of them (13.8%) were Candyapple Red GT’s. [It is quite possible however, that the ratio of Candyapple Red GT’s is higher than 13.8% as this subgroup may represent a different buying trend considering GT’s are a sportier Mustang version.]

And IF there were in fact 3,521 Candyapple Red GT’s, and IF the ratio of Candyapple Red cars with Red (25) interiors is the same for these GT’s cars as it is for all those reporting VIN-Plus in 1994, then about 1,127 cars (32%) were Candyapple Red GT’s with RED (25) interiors.
Approximately 1,127 cars out of a total production of 607,568 is approximately .186% of production. Your mileage may vary

About a year ago, Jim Smart sold the rights of In Search of Mustangs to Kevin Marti. Marti has followed through on his promise to start an online registry to continue this research. It can be found at:

http://www.insearchofmustangs.org/

I did the "number" thing for my 66 K GT C4 Fastback with Silver Blue exterior (Y), Delux blue/white interior (62) and came up with (are you ready) 2.6 cars.
Jim 

[Pete Bush]

I did the "number" thing for my 66 K GT C4 Fastback with Silver Blue exterior (Y), Delux blue/white interior (62) and came up with (are you ready) 2.6 cars.
Jim 

Now that's rare

[Jays66gt]

Where is this magic MPG document?  I cannot find a copy of it anywhere.  Is it available anymore?

And what percentage of a production run qualifies as rare?  2 %?  5 %?  0.005?

[Pete Bush]

Where is this magic MPG document?  I cannot find a copy of it anywhere.  Is it available anymore?

And what percentage of a production run qualifies as rare?  2 %?  5 %?  0.005?

The In Search of Mustangs Mustang Production Guide Vol. 1 (MPG) is no longer in print. Any remaining copies were supposedly sold to Marti when he bought the copyrights from authors Jim Smart and Jim Haskell. But you can still access the research at the In Search of Mustangs website that I provided a link for earlier.

What qualifies as "rare" is more subjective even then the probabilities themselves.

When Marti gives a report on a 1967+ car he usually gives a breakdown of how many others were fitted out with those same features. The less cars that were fitted out in that manner, the more rare the remaining ones are, I guess. A typical Marti Report includes many of the options on the car, whereas the MPG doesn't go to that depth of detail. It doesn't list many of the options a buyer could chose, only those things that would show up on a Warranty Plate. You can only do so much with the data we have. 

[CharlesTurner]

I guess something that might be interesting is to compare the 67-73 Smart/Haskell book to the real production stats.  Might offer a little insight as to whether sampling warranty plates is somewhat academic.